USPBL BEACON - Spring 2022
THE USPBL will be entering their 43rd Season!
The last few seasons have seen numerous challenges at the Major League Level, and as Strat-O-Matic gamers, those challenges find their way to us.
For the 2020 season (our 2021) the main issue was the shortened season where MLB played only 60
games. While pro-rating usage has always been in the Constitution, we also used a few other ideas to approach this issue. We expanded usage beyond the 2.7 to X3 for nearly all players. We lowered the
Unlimited usage for batters from 550 to 500 At Bats. We expanded the rotation draft by 2 additional rounds.
And we expanded rosters by 2, although the 2 extra players were temporary.
While Strat included the MLB "Covid Era" rules as options in the game, we decided to not use them,
either because they didn't really apply to us (7 innings double-headers) or we didn't want them because
these optional rules were to be used as a "whole" and not something where we could pick and choose
among them. So we couldn't for instance, use the "extra inning runner on 2nd" rule without using all
the optional 2020 rule changes.
So the 2021 USPBL season was for the most part, a fairly routine season on the field.
As we approach the 2022 USPBL season following a mostly routine 2021 MLB season,
we aren't facing usage or roster issues this time. Still we aren't without problems.
The Lockout which lasted from December to Mid March left us with some issues when it comes
to assembling our USPBL rosters. We often depend on MLB Free Agent signings, prospect information,
and their probable depth charts in determining who stays or goes from our rosters.
With the MLB season slated to start April 7th....just a week later than originally scheduled...we stretched the USPBL's roster deadline 5 days to March 31st. The original start of the USPBL season was April 1st, but will now be April 3rd. So not really that much needed to be changed.
Once again, Scott has been maintaining the rosters and the league set-up file. He has adjusted the game's
rosters so that they are in line with USPBL usage. He has also created cards for the uncarded prospects.
The USPBL rules have remained the same as they were prior to the 2021 season.
There are two changes that will be in affect for the USPBL's 2023 Season:
1) Usages will be based on 110% of actual use across the board. This will apply to ALL players.
In the case of some batters, this will actually decrease their number of At Bats allowed. For others, it will increase their At Bats. One of the purposes of this rule is that all batters will get the same "bonus" applied
to their usage where as the current rule favors some more than others. For example, a batter with 110 At Bats would get a boost of 40 ABs under the current rule while the batter with 140 ABs would get just 10.
With the 110% boost, the 110 batter will get 11 extra ABs while the 140 batter will get 14 extra.
And yes, those with fewer ABs will not benefit from the rule, those with more ABS will.
The biggest change the 110% usage change will bring is that for the first time, Pitchers will also get usage bonuses. While starters will only get 0-3 extra starts, this could add up to an additional 10+ starts among your staff, perhaps eliminating the need for another starter. This will also add additional innings to your relief staff. With each reliever getting an extra 3-8 innings, your staff will be seeing a significant boost.
The 110% will be used for the 2023 USPBL Season and is intended to be permanent. However as a "new"
rule, we will take a look at how it worked out after the season and decide if the 110% works or if it might
need to be raised. The nice thing with 110% is that you can easily determine your usage/bonus at a glance.
2) Another rule change will be limiting the number of Uncarded players on a roster to 12. In order to allow
teams to adjust to this change, Uncarded players will be limited to 15 for 2023, and then to 12 thereafter.
Thus far no teams has ever had more than 12 uncarded players so this should not present an imposition at this time. The rule is intended to curb the rising inclusion of Uncarded players on rosters.
The USPBL Season Starts April 3rd.
MANAGER MILESTONES
Several USPBL managers have reached milestones for the 2023 Season.
Dustin Ridgeway and the Ottawa Banditos (Team 7) will be joining us for their 10th season.
Richie Waggoner and his Roanoke Valley Doom (Team 8) will be entering their 20th Season.
Dan Model's Santa Cruz Marauders (Team 16) is entering his 35th season! Way to go Dan.
Jim Walsh is bringing the Wisconsin Dairymen (Team 10) to the USPBL for their 40th season. Wow.
And not to be outdone among these, Patrick LaCaille's Fort Worth Knights (Team 12) will be looking at
Season #1. What could possibly be more exciting?
DEFENSIVE SHIFT - SOME STATS & HOW I SEE IT
(submitted by Jim Walsh of the Wisconsin Dairymen #10)
In recent years we've seen a massive trend towards Defensive Shifts. Even Strat got into the act and includes it in their optional rules. While there was discussions during the lockout to address the shift,
this idea was put on hold for now and but may very well be in the rules next season. The probable rule will involve requiring two infielders on each side of Second base.
In the USPBL, we declined to use it. Besides the expected result of limiting offense and giving the option
of allowing more singles while removing extra base hits, the main issue facing us was that it favors the home
team (human) running the game. The option for the shift pops up often and seemingly randomly.
It did not seem like something that could be addressed properly with a CM.
Let's look at the Defensive Shift and it's probable demise in Major League Baseball.
How often is the shift used?
In 2010 the shift was employed 2,463 times. In 2020 it was used 64,806 times.
It did decline slightly in 2021 to 59,062, just the 2nd such decline since 2010.
The general idea is that the shift is used for batters that hit 75% of ground balls and line drives to their "pull" side. These players saw the shift 71% of the time.
Others not in this class saw the shift about 42% of the time.
Because the stats (at least the ones I have) measure hits and outs as it applies to the shift, it does not
include outs from K's or Flyouts. So the percentage of plays that the shift came into play is about 51%.
The stats show that the shift works, but not all that much. I was certainly surprised seeing that of the
59,062 shifts employed, that only 4,802 were affected by the shift. That's just 8%.
The shift was used 75% of the time against 30 MLB batters. However for 11 of these 30, they had higher
Batting Averages vs the shift than without the shift.
It also needs to be noted that while the Shift takes away some hits, that it also allows some hits as well.
Ryan McMahon faced the shift 75% of the time, hitting .301 vs the shift and just .204 when the defense did not shift. It's noted that perhaps the decrease in the shift between 2020 and 2021 is a result of teams noticing that the shift wasn't always a good option. Those that were more notably Home Run hitters did see
a greater decline to their Batting Average against the shift.
Of those 59,062 shifts, only 856 more hits were taken away than given up. That's only a net gain of 1.5%
Bill James' article on the Shift says that the shift lowered the Major League Batting Average by 4 points.
The league average was .244. If those 856 hits were added along with 856 At Bats, the league average
would go up to .248. So yeah, 4 points.
Now on to the HOW I SEE IT part of this article.
There are varying opinions as to whether a rule to ban this strategy should be added to Baseball's Rules.
Those in favor of the ban want to see more offense. And they want to see the 3rd baseman playing 3B
rather than situating themselves between 1st and 2nd.
Those against the ban feel that the shift is a strategy and strategies should not be banned any more
than say, throwing a ball 100 MPH up in the strike zone, or playing in for a possible bunt.
Okay, the first example isn't as much a strategy as an ability. But the second example is.
The shift isn't exactly a novel idea. We are all aware of the shift used against Ted Williams.
And it has been used here and there over the years. But using it 59 thousand times? That's a new thing.
The fact that it's a new thing is why I support the ban. Or at least don't see anything wrong with it.
New rules are often added to accommodate changes in the game. Often they are added because the
problem being faced wasn't even a thought at the time the rules were made. I imagine there's rules banning
steroids in baseball, but I bet this rule wasn't in there until this became a problem.
When baseball rules were made long ago, they had a 9 man team with the 9 positions including a
2nd baseman and 3rd baseman. The instances of the 3rd baseman positioning themselves between 1st and 2nd, and the 2nd baseman playing in short right field were so rare that I'm sure they never thought that they
actually had to say that a 3rd baseman plays by 3rd base and the 2nd baseman plays by 2nd base.
It's only when teams start to use their players outside of their intended positions that this became relevant.
It's after a steady gain of defensive shifts over the past 10 years culminating in 59 thousand instances of this that a rule actually has to be added. The fact that it's a "strategy" does not make it allowable.
So I favor the ban as a remedy to a problem that just recently (in the past 10 seasons) became a problem.
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